Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Hurricane Sandy: Could it delay Election Day?

Hurricane Sandy: Could it delay Election Day?

theweek.com | Oct 30th 2012 11:20 AM

Come Nov. 6, several states may still be struggling with the aftermath of the storm, raising the outside possibility of a postponement

As Hurricane Sandy, now downgraded to a "superstorm," churns inland, officials in states on or near the coast are assessing the damage left in Sandy's wake. In addition to the tragic deaths of at least 17 people, there are millions without power across several states; flooded roads and damaged infrastructure; and thousands who remain evacuated from danger zones. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has said it may take eight days to fully restore power to his state, raising concerns that New Jersey may not be prepared for Election Day. If other states are experiencing similar logistical problems, would it be possible to reschedule?

Technically, yes. The power to delay elections, even federal ones, lies with the states, says L.V. Anderson at Slate:

The details of the postponement would vary state by state. Many states have constitutional provisions or statutes that detail their ability to suspend or reschedule an election in the event of an emergency... As for states without specific provisions of statutes, the governor could still reasonably use his or her emergency powers to suspend the election during a state of emergency.

In addition, Congress has the right to determine when federal elections will take place. Since 1845, presidential elections have been held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, and that could hypothetically be changed. However, the truth is that there is so little precedent for such a delay that it could very well set off a constitutional crisis, says Ben Jacobs at The New Republic:

The solution would not be guided by statute since there is so little precedent but instead by what is both expedient and politically acceptable. The basic statutory framework and handful of court cases would be a guide, not an answer. Instead, like any other response to a natural disaster, adjusting Election Day would simply require improvising.

To avoid that kind of messiness, Virginia Gov. Robert McDonnell is focusing on rehabilitating polling centers, says Rachel Weiner at The Washington Post:

[Officials] are focusing on arranging with power companies to restore power first to polling locations. They are also making sure voting equipment is battery-operated and that batteries are charged. And they are setting up contingency polling places in the event that polling locations are unusable for reasons going beyond power issues, such as flooding.

Some have taken issue with the whole notion of delaying the election. Jonah Goldberg at The National Review says voters need to grow a thicker hide:

[This] country held elections during the Civil War!...

This country is so bizarrely schizophrenic about voting it drives me crazy. We are constantly bathed in platitudes about how vital, wonderful, special, glorious and sacred voting is. But don't you dare ask the American people to put the slightest bit of effort into the practice. It must be convenient. It must be easy. It must be on my timetable, like a DVR'd episode of Nashville or The Price is Right. Why not ask the American people to demonstrate that they appreciate the importance of voting?

Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.

Original Page: http://theweek.com/article/index/235591/hurricane-sandy-could-it-delay-election-day

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After the Devastation, a Daunting Recovery

After the Devastation, a Daunting Recovery

by JAMES BARRON, nytimes.com
October 31st 2012

Still hobbled by power outages and waterlogged transit, the New York region struggled to return to the rhythms of daily life on Wednesday while facing the reality of a prolonged and daunting period of recovery.

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Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg was expected to open the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday morning after a two-day closure, the first for weather-related reasons since 1888, as Wall Street and other businesses began to shake off the storm and return to work.

In New York City, the arteries of the morning commute saw some flow returning. Buses were running on their normal routes and free of charge, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority said, though some detours – and potentially substantial crowding – were expected.

More than 4,000 taxis, which for the moment could be shared among harried commuters, offered another partial lifeline to those cut off by the continued suspension of subway service. Some ferries were expected to be crossing between New Jersey and Manhattan.

Newark Liberty and John F. Kennedy airports were set to reopen on Wednesday with limited service. So were state courtrooms in the city. Connecticut, New Jersey and New York reopened many closed roads and bridges, beginning on Tuesday.

Yet schools, parks and East River tunnels remained closed in the city, and many residents up and down the mid-Atlantic still stumbled through their morning routines with candles, flashlights or in darkness. La Guardia Airport, which saw water rise up to the jetways in some areas, was still closed.

President Obama approved disaster declarations for New York and New Jersey, making them eligible for federal assistance for rebuilding. "All of us have been shocked by the force of mother nature," said the president, who plans to visit New Jersey on Wednesday. He promised "all available resources" for recovery efforts.

"This is going to take some time," he said. "It is not going to be easy for these communities to recover."

The toll — in lives disrupted or lost and communities washed out — was staggering. A rampaging fire reduced more than 100 houses to ash in Breezy Point, Queens. Explosions and downed power lines left the lower part of Manhattan and 90 percent of Long Island in the dark. The New York City subway system — a lifeline for millions — was paralyzed by flooded tunnels and was expect to remain silent for days.

Accidents claimed more than 40 lives in the United States and Canada, including 22 in the city. Two boys — an 11-year-old Little League star and a 13-year-old friend — were killed when a 90-foot-tall tree smashed into the family room of a house in North Salem, N.Y. An off-duty police officer who led seven relatives, including a 15-month-old boy, to safety in the storm drowned when he went to check on the basement.

There was no immediate estimate of the losses from the storm, but the scope of the damage — covering more than a half-dozen states — pointed to tens of billions of dollars. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey called it "incalculable."

Rescuers looked for survivors in the drenched rubble in places like Atlantic City, and state and local officials surveyed wreckage. Utility crews began working their way through a wilderness of fallen trees and power lines. And from Virginia to Connecticut, there were stories of tragedy and survival — of people who lost everything when the water rushed in, of buildings that crumbled after being pounded hour after hour by rain and relentless wind, of hospitals that had to be evacuated when the storm knocked out the electricity.

The president spoke with 20 governors and mayors on a conference call Tuesday, and the White House said the president would survey damage from the storm with Mr. Christie on Wednesday. Mr. Obama's press secretary said the president would join Mr. Christie, who has been one of his harshest Republican critics, in talking with storm victims and thanking first responders.

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said Mr. Obama had also offered to visit the city, "but I think the thing for him to do is to go to New Jersey and represent the country."

Mr. Bloomberg said 7,000 trees had been knocked down in city parks. "Stay away from city parks," he said. "They are closed until further notice."

Reporting on the storm was contributed by Peter Applebome, Charles V. Bagli, Nina Bernstein, Joseph Berger, Russ Buettner, John H. Cushman Jr., David W. Dunlap,Theo Emory, Ann Farmer, Sheri Fink, Emma Fitzsimmons, Lisa W. Foderaro, Joseph Goldstein, J. David Goodman, Michael M. Grynbaum, Danny Hakim, David M. Halbfinger, Anemona Hartocollis, Winnie Hu, Jon Hurdle, Kristin Hussey, Thomas Kaplan, Mark Landler, John Leland, Eric Lipton, Elizabeth Maker, Andrew Martin, Cynthia McCloud, Patrick McGeehan, Colin Moynihan, Sarah Maslin Nir, Sharon Otterman, Amisha Padnani, Michael Powell, William K. Rashbaum, Ray Rivera, Liz Robbins, Sam Roberts, Wendy Ruderman, Marc Santora, Michael S. Schmidt, John Schwartz, Nate Schweber, Mosi Secret, Katharine Q. Seelye, Kirk Semple, Kim Severson, Brian Stelter, Kate Taylor, Joyce Wadler, Timothy Wiliams, Michael Wilson and Steven Yaccino.

(Page 2 of 2)

The mayor also said that trick-or-treating was fine for Halloween, but the parade in Greenwich Village had been postponed. The organizers said it was the first time in the parade's 39-year-history that it had been called off.

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New York's subway network, which suffered the worst damage in its 108-year-history, faced one of its longest shutdowns because the problems were so much worse than expected, said Joseph J. Lhota, the chairman and chief executive of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the agency that runs the subways and several commuter railroads.

Water climbed to the ceiling of the South Ferry subway station, the end of the No. 1 line in Lower Manhattan, and debris covered tracks in stations up and down other lines after the water rushed in and out. Mr. Lhota said that seven subway tunnels between Manhattan and Brooklyn were flooded.

He also said that the Metro-North Railroad had no power north of 59th Street on two of its three lines, and that a 40-foot boat had washed up on the tracks in Ossining, N.Y.

The Long Island Rail Road's West Side Yards had to be evacuated, and two railroad tunnels beneath the East River were flooded in the storm. The railroad had not restored power on Tuesday and had no timetable for restoring service. The Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel, officially the Hugh L. Carey Tunnel, and the Queens-Midtown Tunnel also remained impassable, he said.

Airports, too, took a beating. More than 15,000 flights were canceled, and water poured onto the runways at Kennedy and La Guardia, both in Queens. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said La Guardia had suffered "extensive damage."

The flooding in the tunnels in Lower Manhattan was so serious that the Federal Emergency Management Agency asked specialists from the Army Corps of Engineers to help. The "unwatering team," as it is known — two hydrologists and two mechanical engineers from the corps with experience in draining flooded areas — flew to the airport in White Plains because it was one of the few in the area that was open.

From southern New Jersey to the East End of Long Island to the northern suburbs in Connecticut, power companies spent Tuesday trying to figure out just how much damage the storm had done to their wires, transformers and substations.

The work will take at least a week, possibly longer, because the damage was so extensive, and utility companies called in thousands of crews from all around the country to help out. Consolidated Edison reached to San Francisco to bring in 150 workers from Pacific Gas and Electric.

Even with the additional manpower, Con Edison said it could still take more than 10 days to complete the repairs. Con Edison had more than 285,000 customers in Manhattan who were in the dark on Tuesday, and more than 185,000 in Westchester.

Things were worse east of New York City, where nearly one million customers of the Long Island Power Authority did not have power on Tuesday and Mr. Cuomo made clear he wanted the authority to restore power faster than it had in the past. He said it was "not O.K." for it to take two weeks to repair lines brought down by tree limbs.

In New Jersey, Public Service Electric and Gas said it had 1.3 million electric customers in the dark, including 500,000 without power because a surge in Newark Bay flooded substations and other equipment. Another New Jersey utility, Jersey Central Power and Light, whose territory covers many shore towns, said almost all of its customers had lost power in some counties, including Ocean and Monmouth. More than one-third of Connecticut Light and Power's 1.2 million customers had no electricity, either.

The fire in Breezy Point, Queens, leveled scores of houses, among them one that belonged to Representative Bob Turner, who was riding out the storm at home despite the mayor's order to evacuate low-lying areas. Mr. Turner's spokeswoman, Jessica Proud, said he and his wife made it out safely after flames reached their house. Michael R. Long, the chairman of the state Conservative Party, had a home nearby that also burned down, she said.

Flooded streets in the area prevented firefighters from reaching the blaze, a Fire Department spokesman said, and the mayor, who toured the area on Tuesday afternoon, said the neighborhood was devastated.

"To describe it as looking like pictures we have seen at the end of World War II is not overstating it," the mayor said.

The off-duty officer who drowned in his basement was identified as Artur Kasprzak, 28, who was assigned to the First Precinct in Manhattan. He had led seven relatives upstairs to the attic as the water rose in his house on Doty Avenue on Staten Island. He said he was going to check the basement and would be right back. About 20 minutes later, one of his relatives called 911 and said he was missing.

A rescue team with boats and motorized water scooters tried to answer the call but could not reach the house at first because power lines were in the water. His body was found shortly before sunrise.

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Reporting on the storm was contributed by Peter Applebome, Charles V. Bagli, Nina Bernstein, Joseph Berger, Russ Buettner, John H. Cushman Jr., David W. Dunlap,Theo Emory, Ann Farmer, Sheri Fink, Emma Fitzsimmons, Lisa W. Foderaro, Joseph Goldstein, J. David Goodman, Michael M. Grynbaum, Danny Hakim, David M. Halbfinger, Anemona Hartocollis, Winnie Hu, Jon Hurdle, Kristin Hussey, Thomas Kaplan, Mark Landler, John Leland, Eric Lipton, Elizabeth Maker, Andrew Martin, Cynthia McCloud, Patrick McGeehan, Colin Moynihan, Sarah Maslin Nir, Sharon Otterman, Amisha Padnani, Michael Powell, William K. Rashbaum, Ray Rivera, Liz Robbins, Sam Roberts, Wendy Ruderman, Marc Santora, Michael S. Schmidt, John Schwartz, Nate Schweber, Mosi Secret, Katharine Q. Seelye, Kirk Semple, Kim Severson, Brian Stelter, Kate Taylor, Joyce Wadler, Timothy Wiliams, Michael Wilson and Steven Yaccino.

Original Page: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/us/after-storms-destruction-halting-return-in-northeast.html?partner=rss

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The ‘I’ of the Storm

The 'I' of the Storm

by MAUREEN DOWD, nytimes.com
October 30th 2012

The dramatic homestretch ad for President Obama, running on every network and in all media markets, is a home run, devastating for Mitt Romney.

And, best of all, the president didn't have to pay for it, or even say, "I approve this message." It was a total gift — and from a Republican and top Romney surrogate.

Gov. Chris Christie, the fleece-wearing, order-barking Neptune of the Jersey Shore, was all over TV Tuesday, effusively praising the president for his luminous leadership on Hurricane Sandy, the same president he mocked last week at a Romney rally in Virginia as a naif groping to find "the light switch of leadership."

As Romney roams the Midwest and Florida struggling to stay relevant, miming coordinating storm response with G.O.P. governors and collecting canned goods to send East, his fair-weather pal Christie failed to give Mittens any disaster relief.

On ABC, CBS and NBC, Christie hailed Obama as "outstanding." On MSNBC, he said the president "has been all over this," and on CNN, he called Obama "incredibly supportive." The big guy even tweeted his thanks to the slender one.

Most astonishing of all, the New Jersey governor went on Fox News and spoke words rarely heard on that network: "I have to give the president great credit."

"I spoke to the president three times yesterday," Christie gushed. "He called me for the last time at midnight last night, asking what he could do."

Christie also extolled FEMA, even though Romney has said it is "immoral" to spend money on federal disaster relief when the deficit is so big.

"Fox & Friends" co-host Steve Doocy must have forgotten Christie's self-regarding keynote speech at Romney's convention, which had more "I" than "he" in it. Doocy asked Christie if there was "any possibility that Governor Romney may go to New Jersey to tour some of the damage with you?" The governor replied dismissively: "I have no idea, nor am I the least bit concerned or interested," adding: "If you think right now I give a damn about presidential politics, then you don't know me."

White House officials seemed a bit flummoxed by Christie's bearhug. "It's unnerving," one laughed, noting how odd it is that a Romney big gun might help break the stubborn tie in the electorate in Obama's favor.

They speculate that Christie, who always puts Christie first, has decided that it's better for his presidential ambitions to be a maverick blue-state governor with a Democratic chief executive exiting in 2016 than to have President Romney and Tea-Party Republicans in Congress pulling him over to the extreme right for the next eight years. He also knows he'll need a boatload of federal cash to make his state whole again.

Christie was in full "Sopranos"-at-the-shore mode in his blue fleece pullover. When Irene hit last year, he yelled at lingering frolickers, "Get the hell off the beach!" This time, the governor blistered the Atlantic City mayor for sending what he called "mixed messages" on evacuation orders and warned stranded residents: "We will not be able to come and help you until daylight tomorrow."

The president is still overcompensating for his first-debate pout, determined not to be a loser. He made a false start and erred on the side of politics, wasting a round-trip to Florida. He wanted to squeeze in one more rally before the storm, so he risked flying to Orlando Sunday night for a campaign event Monday morning with Bill Clinton. Told that Air Force One pilots said he needed to leave before the rally or he might get stuck outside Washington — where sun and palms would be an unfortunate backdrop — he went back to the White House.

Just about the only criticism the president got on his storm stewardship was, amazingly enough, from "Heck of a Job, Brownie" Michael Brown, the FEMA chief during Katrina, who naturally thought Obama acted too quickly and efficiently.

With Obama forced off the trail, Clinton and Joe Biden could fulfill their shared fantasy: to be the presidential candidate. In Youngstown, Ohio, the two "Last Hurrah" pols plunged into a thrilled throng to shake hands, pose for pictures, bounce babies and sign books. Biden employed his classic move of holding the cheeks of a delighted older woman, then reaching around her in a full body hug to grab the hands of a woman behind. As "Your Love Keeps Lifting Me Higher" blared, the prolix, snowy-haired pair scanned for anyone to schmooze or squeeze as the arena emptied out. The Big Dog lingered even longer than C-Span cameras.

Rather than campaigning, which he finds draining, the president was in the Oval calling a Republican to work things out. But this time, unlike with John Boehner at a fateful moment, a flattered Christie took Obama's calls. While Romney campaigns in Florida Wednesday, Christie and Obama plan to tour storm damage in New Jersey, a picture of bipartisanship, putting distressed people above dirt-slinging politics.

And that's a grand bargain for both of them.

Original Page: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/opinion/dowd-the-i-of-the-storm.html

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Oklahomans Prepare for New Law That Will Make Guns a Common Sight

Oklahomans Prepare for New Law That Will Make Guns a Common Sight

by MANNY FERNANDEZ, nytimes.com
October 30th 2012

OKLAHOMA CITY — Bryan Hull will soon strap his Smith & Wesson .357 Magnum revolver to his hip and meet his armed friends at Beverly's Pancake House here. They have no interest in the cash register. They just want a late-night breakfast.

Tom Smith, owner of the Stillwater Armory gun shop, openly carried an Ed Brown 1911 .45 caliber pistol in his store. Oklahoma's law allowing unconcealed firearms takes effect Thursday.

A new law takes effect on Thursday in Oklahoma — anyone licensed to carry a concealed firearm can choose to carry a weapon out in the open, in a belt or shoulder holster, loaded or unloaded. Five minutes after midnight Thursday, Mr. Hull and his friends — supporters of the Oklahoma Open Carry Association, a gun rights group — will mark the occasion by wearing their unconcealed handguns while dining at Beverly's, a 24-hour restaurant.

"It's just a peaceful assembly," said Mr. Hull, 44, the association's co-director. "We're all licensed by the state to carry. We've all been trained and vetted. Why wouldn't somebody want to have that kind of a group do business with them in their establishment?"

In a state with 142,000 men and women licensed to carry concealed weapons, the scene at Beverly's will most likely become commonplace as Oklahomans take advantage of the law by displaying their handguns while they shop for groceries, eat at restaurants and walk into banks.

Advocates for gun rights said the ability to "open carry" would deter crime and eliminate the risks of a wardrobe mishap, such as when someone carrying a concealed weapon breaks the law by accidentally exposing the firearm. But the new law is a symbolic as well as practical victory. Supporters said there was no better advertisement for the Second Amendment than to have thousands of responsible adults openly carrying their weapons in a highly visible fashion.

"This enhances Oklahomans' ability to exercise their Second Amendment rights," said the Republican state senator who wrote Senate Bill 1733, Anthony Sykes. "I think the evidence is clear that gun owners are some of the most responsible people, and they've shown that in not just Oklahoma, where we've had conceal carry for quite some time and there's never been an incident, but in these other states as well."

When the law takes effect, Oklahoma will become the 15th state to allow people to openly carry firearms with a license. Those 15 states include Utah, Iowa, New Jersey and Connecticut. Several other states, including Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada, have even more permissive laws that allow the carrying of unconcealed firearms without a license. All but six states and the District of Columbia allow some form of open carry, said John Pierce, founder of OpenCarry.org.

Though common around the country, these laws in several states have posed legal and logistical problems for municipalities and law enforcement agencies seeking to balance gun owners' constitutional rights with maintaining order.

Even in Western and Midwestern states where support for gun rights is strong, the laws have often passed after lobbying efforts lasting years, and have led to confusion and debate about where it is appropriate, let alone legal, for people to openly display their handguns.

In Mason City, Iowa, officials debated seeking an ordinance making it illegal to open-carry in city parks after two people displaying their firearms showed up at a children's playground. To avoid potential litigation, officials decided to not pursue an ordinance. They instead started a marketing campaign last month asking residents to keep their weapons concealed in public parks.

On the East Coast, open-carry laws generate little controversy because several states make it hard for average citizens to acquire the permits necessary to display unconcealed firearms.

Oklahoma is considered a "shall-issue" state, meaning that once a resident meets the legal requirements, officials must issue a license. Others states, including New Jersey and Connecticut, are known as "may-issue" states, meaning that even if a resident satisfies the requirements, officials may or may not issue the license because they have the discretion to consider other factors.

Last year, Iowa expanded its gun rights and switched from a "may-issue" state to a "shall-issue" one, over the objections of the Iowa State Sheriffs and Deputies Association.

In Oklahoma, some police officials, merchants and residents have expressed varying levels of concern and unease with the law. In 2010, a similar bill was vetoed by the governor at the time, Brad Henry, a Democrat, in part based on law enforcement concerns that such a law would make it difficult for officers to sort out the good guys from the bad guys at a crime scene. This year, the bill was signed into law in May by Gov. Mary Fallin, a Republican and a gun owner.

The governor and the bill's supporters say those who will be openly carrying are law-abiding citizens, all of whom received their concealed-carry license after taking a firearms training course and passing a criminal background check by the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation. The average age of a license holder is 51.

The new law has illustrated the ways in which the state's image as a bastion of rugged outdoorsmen and gun-toting cowboys is as much fact as it is fiction.

Beverly's Pancake House is not exactly located in the Oklahoma prairie, where firearms turn few heads. The diner is in a strip mall off a busy expressway, behind a Starbucks and across the street from a Marriott hotel. Michael Rodriguez, the general manager, said he supported Mr. Hull and his other armed guests, but he planned on asking them Thursday to show their handgun licenses. Downtown, managers at the Bricktown Brewery plan on posting a "no weapons allowed" sign.

"I see our city with an opportunity to continue to be a modern, upscale city," said Charles Stout, the brewery's managing partner. "I think we have to be careful of the message we're sending."

In recent weeks throughout Oklahoma, there has been a flurry of activity and debate as the date has approached. Businesses and property owners have been figuring out their policies, and law enforcement agencies have been conducting trainings on the law for officers and dispatchers. Police officials in Tulsa, Oklahoma City and other cities said they anticipated receiving an increased number of "man with a gun" calls, but they did not expect widespread problems.

In Stillwater, about 65 miles north of Oklahoma City, the owner of the Stillwater Armory gun shop said the new law has brought about a subtle change in buying habits. Customers with small handguns that are easy to conceal have been buying larger weapons, with longer barrels that hold additional rounds, as they prepare to wear their guns unconcealed.

"The old saying within the community is, 'It's better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it,'" said the owner, Tom Smith, 42, who openly carries a Springfield XD-S pistol while in his shop.

The law prohibits concealed or unconcealed firearms in a handful of places, including government buildings, schools and bars. Most businesses, however, must decide on their own how to handle those openly carrying.

People entering one of Bank of Oklahoma's 85 branches in the state need not leave their weapon in the car. They can bring it inside. Similarly, customers of American Eagle Towing in Oklahoma City will find that they and their holstered handguns are welcome. Mr. Hull is the general manager, and he openly wears a Ruger LC9 pistol while at the office. Last year, he said, a group of would-be robbers whose car had been impounded saw his pistol and quickly left.

"I never saw a weapon," Mr. Hull said. "I never drew my weapon. There was no need to. My openly carried firearm deterred whatever it was they had in mind, and I'm sure it wasn't to bring me a thank-you card."

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: October 30, 2012

An earlier version of the first photo in the story incorrectly identified a firearm as a Springfield XD-S pistol.  It is an Ed Brown 1911 .45 caliber pistol.

Original Page: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/us/oklahoma-prepares-for-open-carry-gun-law.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

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Law Firms, Courts, Schools Struggle to Cope in Sandy's Wake

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Judge says part of Simi Halloween law is likely unconstitutional » Ventura County Star

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Hurricane Sandy may cause as much as $20 billion in economic damage

Hurricane Sandy may cause as much as $20 billion in economic damage
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/10/hurricane_sandy_may_cause_as_m.html



By

Bloomberg News

on October 30, 2012 at 1:49 AM, updated October 30, 2012 at 3:47 AM

Hurricane Sandy ravages N.J. on October 29th: Photo Gallery 3
Hurricane Sandy

may cause as much as $20 billion in economic damage and losses as the biggest Atlantic storm made landfall, flooding homes and offices, after disrupting millions of fliers and forcing stores to close.

Insured losses may reach $5 billion to $10 billion, or about half of the total, according to estimates today by Eqecat Inc., an Oakland, California-based provider of catastrophic risk models.

Sandy, spanning 900 miles, slammed into southern New Jersey at about 8 p.m. New York time and brought a surge in Manhattan exceeding 13 feet (4 meters). U.S. airlines have grounded about 12,500 flights, stranding travelers, and U.S. stock trading is closed through tomorrow in the first back-to-back shutdowns for weather since 1888.

"This one has got so many facets to it — you've got wind, you've got rain, you've got snow, you've got the full moon, you've got the storm surge," said Doug Spiron, who is running home-improvement retailer Home Depot Inc.'s emergency response operations involving 350 employees in Atlanta. "Then there's the impact of the sheer size of the storm. This one takes it to another whole level of preparation."

High Tide

Record tides from the storm combined with hours of pounding wind and rain to flood electrical substations and shut down New York City's financial district. Consolidated Edison Inc., the city's utility, killed power to parts of downtown Manhattan, including Wall Street, and Brooklyn, as the storm surge, boosted by high tide, sent saltwater pouring into its underground power network.

Before Sandy made landfall, the storm had knocked out power to more than 2.1 million homes and businesses from North Carolina to New Hampshire, according to utility reports. Power blackouts may eventually affect as many as 10 million people in the region for as long as 10 days.

Earlier, before the storm made landfall, rising winds caused the partial collapse of a crane at a West 57th Street luxury tower called One57, designed to be the tallest residential structure in Manhattan at 90 stories.

Sandy's "size is enormous, with storm-force winds extending up to 1,000 miles from the center of the storm on both sides," Annes Haseemkunju, an atmospheric scientist at Eqecat, said today by telephone.

Storm Damage

As the storm progresses, economists and analysts have varying estimates on how much damage it will cause.

Hurricane Sandy ultimately may subtract 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points from U.S. gross domestic product in the fourth quarter as spending drops on services such as restaurant meals, according to Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. The economy, with annualized GDP of $13.6 trillion, expanded at a 2 percent pace in the third quarter.

"There's a loss of activity that's going to be hard to make up," Vitner said. "If you're a restaurant and you're closed today, people are not going to eat two lunches tomorrow."

Insured losses from the storm may reach $8.3 billion, with the largest portion in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, according to an estimate from Kinetic Analysis Corp. compiled by Bloomberg.

Suspended Operations

In New Jersey, the coastal resort area of Ocean City faces damage from storm surge. The area has 6,246 homes valued at $2.51 billion, according to CoreLogic Inc., an analytics firm which ranked possible storm exposure by Zip code. In the vicinity of Atlantic City and Hammonton, the island community of Margate City has 4,465 residential homes valued at more than $1.4 billion, Irvine, California-based CoreLogic said today in a statement.

Boeing Co., the world's largest aerospace and defense company, suspended operations today at sites in Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania and will determine plans for the remainder of the week on a day-to-day basis. The shutdown includes Chicago-based Boeing's plant near Philadelphia, where about 6,000 employees build H-47 Chinook helicopters and V-22 Ospreys.

Phillips 66 shut down its refinery in Linden, New Jersey, and Hess Corp. closed a facility in Port Reading, New Jersey, the Energy Department said. The Hess facility doesn't process crude oil. Other refineries in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware reduced output, according to the department.

'Rebuilding Effect'

Exxon Mobil Corp., NuStar Energy LP, Phillips 66 and Hess closed energy terminals they operate in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Virginia and Maryland, according to the Energy Department.

There's still a chance the storm will have little discernible impact on GDP, other forecasters said.

"Generally there's a disruption effect and a rebuilding effect," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado. "The disruption effect should last about a week, and the rebuilding effect the following three or four weeks. On net, the rebuilding effect exceeds the disruption effect, but only by a small amount. So we might find by the end of the fourth quarter repair would be a small positive."

Sandy may cut into sales of clothing and accessories as the holiday shopping season nears, according to Oliver Chen, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York. The storm may reduce November same-store sales by as much as 3 percent as traffic may fall 40 percent in storm-affected areas in November's first week, which accounts for about 22 percent of the month's sales, Chen said today in a note.

Online Spending

Consumers who can't shop in stores because of storm closings may shift to online spending, according to Gil Luria, an analyst at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. A shift of one percentage point of revenue to online retailers due to the hurricane would boost fourth-quarter online sales by roughly that much, Luria said today by e-mail.

The storm may help discount and home-improvement stores such as Home Depot as consumers stock up on supplies, while reducing purchases at specialty-apparel chains, Chen said. American Eagle Outfitters Inc., Limited Brands Inc. and Urban Outfitters Inc. are among the companies with the highest percentages of their stores affected by the storm, he said.

"The storm will disrupt last-minute Halloween sales and mall traffic but drive up stock-up trips to the discounters," Deborah Weinswig, a Citigroup analyst, said in an e-mail today. As such, she expects Sandy's impact to be "mixed."

—With assistance from Esme E. Deprez, Henry Goldman, Nina Mehta, Nikolaj Gammeltoft, Sapna Maheshwari, Renee Dudley, Noah Buhayar, Chris Dolmetsch, Michelle Kaske, Whitney Kisling and Alexander Kowalski in New York, Michelle Jamrisko, Cotten Timberlake and Jim Snyder in Washington, Susanna Ray in Seattle and Danielle Kucera in San Francisco. Editors: Ben Livesey, Stephen West

Complete Hurricane Sandy coverage


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Monday, October 29, 2012

Hurricane Sandy causes evacuations, closings throughout East Coast

Hurricane Sandy causes evacuations, closings throughout East Coast

by Ashley Halsey III and Annie Gowen and Mark Berman, washingtonpost.com
October 29th 2012 4:00 AM

As mammoth storm system Hurricane Sandy conspired to assault the most populous part of the United States, hundreds of thousands of people moved to higher ground and cities announced shutdowns that typically occur after several feet of snow.

The Washington region's entire public transit system — Metro, Virginia Railway Express and the Maryland Transportation System — ceased operations. Schools, colleges and universities closed Monday, and some have already announced they'll close Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

Cities north along the Eastern Seaboard took similar action. New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I) ordered the evacuation of Coney Island and Lower Manhattan, and authorities shut down the city's schools and its subway system, effectively bringing the nation's largest city to a near halt. More than 60 miles inland, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter (D) urged people to leave low-lying neighborhoods.

Even the New York Stock Exchange will close floor trading on Monday and move to an electronic-only system.

Thousands of flights in and out of eastern cities were canceled, and utility crews were summoned from distant states after it was predicted that 10 million people might lose electricity.

In the Washington area, utilities used robo-calls to warn residents to prepare to be without power for days or weeks. But there was hope that local power systems rebuilt after the intense windstorm known as the "derecho" in June might better stand up to Sandy.

"Pepco has committed all its resources to Hurricane Sandy," said Thomas H. Graham, the company's regional president. "Because of the magnitude of the storm, we will not be issuing estimated restoration times until the storm has passed and a preliminary damage assessment has been conducted. At that time, a global estimated restoration time will be released indicating when we expect to have 90 percent of customers restored."

High winds — including hurricane-force gusts of 60 mph to 70 mph — should continue to hit the D.C. region through Tuesday evening, according to the National Weather Service. Sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph starting at 8 a.m. Monday are expected to increase to 45 mph around noon.

Hurricane Sandy and its co-conspirators — a jet stream barricade to the west, a strong nor'easter and a full moon that drives tides to abnormal heights — were not be be trifled with, forecasters warned. The full moon on Monday will add 2 to 3 inches to the storm surge in New York, said Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters.

"This storm is a killer storm that will likely take more lives as she makes landfall," said Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D). "This is a very large and unprecedented storm. It will be a couple of days before it will be even safe to get linemen out on the streets [and] up in the bucket trucks and reconnecting people to power."

Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) said Sandy "is unlike any storm I've seen in 20 years in office. It's a very unique weather event this late in the season for the people of Virginia."

D.C. Mayor Vincent C. Gray (D) said the storm was "unique, large, dangerous and unlike anything our region has ever experienced in a very a long time."

But Greg Lambert, shopping at Bed Bath and Beyond in Pentagon City before heading to the neighboring Harris Teeter to stock up on canned peaches, chips and a ham, was in no hurry to hunker down.

Original Page: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/hurricane-sandy-causes-evacuations-closings-throughout-east-coast/2012/10/29/8eac52ba-2162-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story.html

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Sunday, October 28, 2012

Ohio, the Bull's-Eye State

Ohio, the Bull's-Eye State

by Dan Balz, realclearpolitics.com
October 28th 2012

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Kathy Wade was out mowing her lawn on a raw and rainy Friday when Doyle and Jane Peyton, volunteer canvassers for Mitt Romney's campaign, stopped at the curb in her suburban neighborhood 20 miles from Columbus. Doyle asked her: Had she decided how she would vote in the presidential election?

Wade paused. "I am one of those lovely, undecided Ohio female voters," she said.

She was reluctant to talk much about the choice she faces in deciding between Romney and President Obama, she said, but the smile on her face reflected the understanding that she and every other voter in Ohio — decided or not — are at the center of one of the epic struggles in presidential politics.


Original Page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/10/28/ohio_the_bull039s-eye_state_294468.html

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In Wisconsin, It's Game On

In Wisconsin, It's Game On

by Tom Bevan, realclearpolitics.com
October 27th 2012


KENOSHA, Wis. -- Is Wisconsin the new Ohio? It's beginning to feel that way. As the presidential race hurtles toward a dramatic conclusion, both campaigns are suddenly locked in an intense battle to win the Badger State and its 10 Electoral College votes. Vice President Joe Biden stormed through the state on Friday, beginning with a stop in Oshkosh and finishing with an afternoon rally before some 1,500 raucous supporters in Kenosha.

"Folks, we need you" Biden exhorted the crowd at the end of his 30-minute speech. "Together we can win Wisconsin, and when we win Wisconsin, we will win this election!"

A new poll from Rasmussen Reports underscored just how close the contest has become here: President Obama and Mitt Romney were tied at 49 percent each in the poll of likely voters, conducted Thursday. Overall, Obama leads by just 2.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics Average in Wisconsin, down from 6.6 percent two weeks ago.

Obama's campaign has moved quickly over the last week to try to shore up support in a state the president won overwhelmingly four years ago. In addition to the vice president's visits Friday, the campaign announced that the president himself will make a campaign stop next week in Green Bay.

In another sign of Democrats' concern over the tightening race in Wisconsin, earlier this week Priorities USA, the super PAC supporting the Obama campaign, bought advertising time in five media markets for the final week of the campaign.

The Romney camp has also mobilized more resources to the state, apparently sensing a shift in momentum. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio stumped for Romney on Thursday in the heavily Republican area of Waukesha, just west of Milwaukee. RNC Chairman and Wisconsin native Reince Priebus barnstormed the state earlier in the week, and Romney is set to hold a "victory rally" in the Milwaukee area on Monday night.

Along with Ohio and Iowa, Wisconsin represents what is being termed Obama's "Midwest Firewall." Ohio remains the focal point, thanks to the electoral math; whichever candidate wins the Buckeye State and its 18 electoral votes has a much easier route to reach the magic number of 270.

But with Wisconsin (and Iowa) very much in play, the Romney campaign senses an opportunity to break through Obama's firewall, and with the state's 10 electoral votes in its column the Romney brain trust can suddenly see a potential path to the White House despite losing Ohio – something that would be unprecedented for a Republican presidential candidate.

Under normal circumstances, the idea that a GOP nominee could lose a more traditionally Republican-leaning state like Ohio but win in historically less favorable territory like Wisconsin and Iowa -- states Obama carried in 2008 by 14 and 9.5 percentage points, respectively -- would appear to be a long shot.

But this year is far from normal. Despite having suffered a decline of roughly four points or more in several other swing states since the first debate in early October, Obama's lead has slipped less than half of that amount in Ohio. He appears to be "defying gravity" there -- in the words of NBC News' Chuck Todd -- thanks in part to his stance on the auto bailout, heavy ad spending, an intense early voting effort, and a local economy performing better than the national average.

In Wisconsin, however, it appears the laws of physics still apply. Obama has lost 5.3 percent in the RealClearPolitics Average in Wisconsin since October 3, the day of the first presidential debate. And the Romney campaign has two additional reasons to believe it can keep the president earthbound there.

The first is the choice of Paul Ryan, who represents the state's 1st Congressional District in the southeastern part of the state and hails from Janesville. Ryan's status as favorite son, and his ability to appeal to independent voters in the state, is suddenly more important than ever.

Second, Republicans believe the political machine they've built statewide over the past few years, largely to battle the effort to recall Gov. Scott Walker, will make the difference for Romney on Election Day. That machine, which the Republicans test-drove back on June 5, performed exceedingly well: Walker turned out 1.3 million voters in the recall, more than 205,000 more than he did in his 2010 victory.

Early voting started this week in Wisconsin, and Republicans say they got off to a good start.

"Republican strongholds like Waukesha and Washington counties over-performed 2008, while Democratic strongholds like Dane County under-performed," said Rick Wiley, political director for the Republican National Committee and former executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin.

But given the overwhelming size of Obama's victory in Wisconsin four years ago, Republicans could out-perform 2008 by a significant amount but still come up on the losing end, especially if Democrats are able to avoid a substantial drop-off in enthusiasm.

That is exactly what Joe Biden hoped to prevent with his visit to Kenosha.

"Folks in Wisconsin know, as well as anybody in the nation, there is no quit in America," an animated Biden urged the crowd. "In America, people are determined to bring this country back, they're determined not to go back, and where I come from there's only one direction -- forward!"

Original Page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/27/suddenly_all_eyes_on_wisconsin_115946.html

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Saturday, October 27, 2012

Mitt Romney for President

Mitt Romney for President

by Florida Sun-Sentinel, realclearpolitics.com
October 26th 2012

Brush away all the rhetoric, all the vitriol, all the divisiveness from the presidential campaign. To most Americans, only one thing matters — the economy.

Four years into Barack Obama's presidency, economic growth is sputtering. Family incomes are down. Poverty is up. Business owners are reluctant to assume risk in the face of unending uncertainty. Many are holding on by their fingernails, desperate for signs of an economic recovery that will help them provide for themselves, their employees, their customers and their communities.


Original Page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/10/26/mitt_romney_for_president_294337.html

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More In Politics Counts

More In Politics Counts

by Dante Chinni, blogs.wsj.com
October 26th 2012 1:00 PM

Dante Chinni is the writer of Politics Counts , which runs every Friday. Mr. Chinni is the editor of Patchwork Nation, which examines different types of communities across the U.S. 

As the presidential race has narrowed to become a dead heat, one state in particular has risen to the top of the most important battlegrounds: Ohio. Both campaigns see it as the linchpin to securing 270 electoral votes and both candidates and their surrogates are racking up the frequent flier miles to the Buckeye State.

As we have noted in this space before, Ohio is a complicated terrain, with different regions holding different kinds of voters – it is big cities and suburbs, college hubs and small towns. It's difficult to get a handle on, which is one reason why is always seems to be a battleground. In the last five presidential elections, its vote has gone with the Democratic candidate three times and the Republican twice – and always, with the winner.

But when you look closely at the state, there may be five counties that are particularly worth watching: three in the corridor between Cleveland and Toledo (Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky), one in the state's middle (Tuscawaras) and one in its southwestern corner (Hamilton).

If Ohio is to be the center of the political universe for the next few weeks, those five counties will offer an important indicator of the it is spinning on Nov. 6. Set in different parts of the state, those five counties might be seen as Ohio's bellwethers for different reasons, but taken together the vote in them will tell us a lot.

Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky Counties

 Like the other counties listed here, it's not that these three control the fate of Ohio – the total population in them is only about 225,000 – but rather that the vote in them in indicative of larger trends in the state with key demographic groups. Wood and Ottawa have sided with the winner in every presidential election since 1992 and Sandusky, which borders them, has done so in four of the five campaigns.

Largely stationed along the Ohio Turnpike, east of Toledo, these three counties have a lot of older white residents. That can swing the vote in them toward the GOP. But they also hold a lot of jobs – and retirees – connected to automobile manufacturing and to auto unions. That may make them a challenge for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, as his now infamously headlined opinion piece "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" is surely know here.

When the Democratic candidate wins these three counties there is usually a solid blue line in the population center across the top of the state along Lake Erie Ohio from Toledo to Cleveland. The map shows how often Democrats have won each of the counties in Ohio in presidential elections since 1992 – the darker the blue, the more often they have won.

Tuscarawas County

 Sitting just below the blue northeast corner of Ohio, Tuscarawas is what one might call a gateway county – residing at a part of the state where the most union-heavy, industrial region starts to give way to its more rural, Appalachian south. And that gateway position may be why, like Ottawa and Wood counties, it has gone with the winner in every presidential election since 1992.

The map here shows the counties that have gone Republican in presidential elections since 1992 – the darker the red, the more often the GOP has won.

Tuscarawas is not wealthy, but it not poor either – the median household income is only about $41,000. And while it has more evangelical adherents than many of Ohio's northern counties, about 16% of its population, it has fewer evangelicals than many of the counties that sit near it and below it. Plus it has a small university presence in a satellite campus of Kent State. In other words, it has small parts of the pieces that make the semi-rural parts of Ohio so complicated and winning it may be a sign that the state in a larger sense is falling to President Obama or Mr. Romney.

Hamilton County

 Hamilton's past record in presidential elections does not suggest it is worth watching. It has only sided with Democrats once in the last five presidential races, in 2008. But the home of Cincinnati is worth watching on Election Day – and in the days leading up to it – for a different reason, what it may say about Ohio's African American vote.

Ohio is general does not have a large black population – only about 12% – but Hamilton is much higher, almost 26%. And over the past three presidential elections, the vote in Hamilton has trended Democratic as the county's African-American population has grown.

In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won Hamilton by about 11 percentage points. In 2004, Mr. Bush won it by about 6 points. In 2008, Mr. Obama won it by 7 points. And in that time, the overall population of Hamilton has shrunk by about 45,000 people, but the African American population has grown by about 7,000.

If Mr. Obama wins Hamilton again on Nov. 6, it likely means he is getting good turnout from African American voters. That will not only help him in Hamilton, but should also help him run up his margins in counties like Cuyahoga, Franklin and Lucas, which also have larger African American populations.

These five counties aren't sure bets. It's possible a candidate could win one or two and still lose the state. But if Mr. Obama or Mr. Romney will all of them, odds are very good that they will win Ohio – and according to the prognosticators this week, the presidency.

Original Page: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/10/26/politics-counts-spotlight-on-5-ohio-counties/

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Life Was in Chaos for Nanny Accused of Killing 2 Children

Life Was in Chaos for Nanny Accused of Killing 2 Children

by N. R. KLEINFIELD, nytimes.com
October 26th 2012

She was unraveling. Yoselyn Ortega's home was an overcrowded tenement that she yearned to leave. She shared the apartment with her teenage son, a sister and a niece, and roamed the halls selling cheap cosmetics and jewelry for extra money. She had been forced to relinquish a new apartment for her and her son and move back. A woman had chiseled her on a debt. Neighbors found her sulky and remote. She seemed to be losing weight.

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Juan Pozo, 67, a car service driver who used to rent a room in her apartment, said he spoke to her sister on Friday, who told him that Ms. Ortega had not been feeling well lately, "that she felt like she was losing her mind."

He said the family had taken her to see a psychologist, an account shared by others, including the police.

This was the unfinished portrait that began to emerge on Friday of Ms. Ortega, the Manhattan nanny who, the authorities said, committed the unthinkable.

On Thursday evening around 5:30, Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly said, Marina Krim returned to her Upper West Side apartment with her 3-year-old daughter to discover her two other children, a 2-year-old boy and a 6-year-old girl, dead of knife wounds in the bathtub and Ms. Ortega slashing herself with the same bloodied kitchen knife used on the children.

Ms. Ortega, 50, survived, but the police have been unable to question her because she remains in the hospital in a medically induced coma, a deep stab wound in her throat. She has not yet been charged.

The authorities remain mystified over the motive. Paul J. Browne, the chief police spokesman, said family members had told detectives that Ms. Ortega "over the last couple of months was not herself."

"She was, according to others, seeking some professional help," he said, adding, "There were financial concerns."

Ms. Ortega, who the police said was a naturalized American citizen from the Dominican Republic, had worked for the Krims for about two years. She had been referred by another family, the police said, and did not come through an agency, which customarily does background checks. A law enforcement official said Ms. Ortega had had no previous brushes with the law, nor have detectives learned of any tensions in her relationship with the Krims.

"No fighting with the mom, the family, the kids," the official said. "Everybody is looking for a reason here." He added, "We've got nothing bad other than the fact that she killed two children."

On Friday, the sort of memorial with stuffed animals and flowers that has become sadly familiar in the aftermath of a city tragedy took shape outside the Krim apartment building, as parents pondered what to say to their own children. Disbelief was pervasive in the neighborhood.

"I don't have words for something like that," said William Davila, whose daughter is a fifth grader at Public School 87, which Lucia Krim, 6, had attended. The children's father, Kevin Krim, was returning from a business trip on Thursday when he was met by the police at the airport.

Mr. Krim learned that his youngest child, Leo, and his daughter Lucia, known as Lulu, had died and that the police had arrested the nanny with whom the Krims were so close that they had traveled to her home in the Dominican Republic. He is an executive at CNBC. Ms. Krim did not work outside the home, but taught an occasional art class at the Museum of Natural History. On Thursday night, CNBC put the Krims up in a hotel.

Mr. Krim's father, William Krim, 74, said the parents had not returned to their apartment.

"I don't know if they ever will," he said. "I don't know if I could."

A spokeswoman for the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, Dr. Charles S. Hirsch, said Lucia had died of "multiple stab and incise wounds," and Leo of "incise wounds of the neck." They had been clothed, a law enforcement official said, suggesting that Ms. Ortega had not been bathing the children.

For about 30 years, according to neighbors, Ms. Ortega has lived in a six-story tenement building at 610 Riverside Drive in the Hamilton Heights neighborhood in Upper Manhattan. Before the nanny job, they said, she had worked in factories and as a cleaning lady. A neighbor said the sister she lived with was a taxi driver.

Reporting was contributed by James Barron, David M. Halbfinger, Daniel Krieger, Peter Lattman, Randy Leonard, William K. Rashbaum, Nate Schweber, Daniella Silva and Vivian Yee.

(Page 2 of 2)

This year, Maria Lajara, 41, a friend who lives in the building, said Ms. Ortega had stopped by to tell her how happy she was that she had found a new apartment in the Bronx for herself and her son. She said that Ms. Ortega had conveyed how much she loved working for the Krims and that she was paid and treated well. Also this year, she said, the Krims had given Ms. Ortega an Ann Taylor jacket as a gift.

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Nannies who work near one another often form social networks, setting up joint play dates or meeting at playgrounds. But most other nannies in the Krim building said they were unfamiliar with Ms. Ortega.

One nanny, Terla Duran, 35, said she did not know Ms. Ortega, but a friend who is a nanny did.

"Not many of us knew her; they say she was very strange," Ms. Duran said. "She spent most of her time locked up inside the apartment."

Once she moved to the Bronx, Ms. Ortega stayed in touch with Ms. Lajara, her friend. She would tell Ms. Lajara to save copies of a religious magazine, Rayo de Luz, which Ms. Ortega's sister would then take to her.

Twice, Ms. Ortega asked Ms. Lajara to pray that a woman would pay her for makeup she had given her to sell. The amount, Ms. Lajara said, was about $100, and it was important to her.

Within the past few months, Ms. Ortega returned to live with her sister. Fernando Mercado, the superintendent of the building on Riverside Drive, said she had been renting the Bronx apartment from an acquaintance who moved to the Dominican Republic. But the tenant returned and threw out Ms. Ortega. "She spent a lot of money on the Bronx apartment," Mr. Mercado said of Ms. Ortega.

Neighbors on Riverside Drive said that in recent weeks, Ms. Ortega had looked older, anxious, harried. Ruben Rivas, one of the neighbors, described her as "kind of devastated."

He last saw her two weeks ago. "She was in bad shape," he said. "Skinny."

Neighbors said she walked faster in the hallways and was withdrawn. She had been known as a gregarious woman who, they said, greeted them with shouts of "Hola, vecina" — "Hello, neighbor." But now, they said, she avoided eye contact and said little.

Kenia Galo, 25, who has known her all her life, would see her in the elevator lately and remark that she looked tired.

"I am tired," she would reply. "Work."

Neighbors said she would leave the building at 5:30 or 6 a.m. and not return for 12 hours.

Ana Bonet, 40, a neighbor, said that besides her nanny job, Ms. Ortega sold inexpensive jewelry and makeup to neighbors. Others said she also earned money by cooking rice and chicken dishes for parties.

The Krim parents were both Californians who have been married for about nine years. Ms. Krim grew up in Manhattan Beach, and Mr. Krim in Thousand Oaks, where he was a football star. He worked at McKinsey & Company in Los Angeles and she worked for a wholesaler of powders; they met at an Italian restaurant in Venice Beach.

Mr. Krim took a job at Yahoo in San Francisco, where they lived before moving to New York about three years ago. After first being employed at Bloomberg L.P., Mr. Krim moved to CNBC.

According to Mr. Krim's parents, Ms. Ortega was hired about six months after the Krims came to New York. They did not know what vetting the couple did.

"We're just the most stunned people in the world — I mean, they treated this woman so well," said William Krim, who lists Marina Krim in his cellphone as "World's Best Mom."

Though Ms. Krim did not work outside the home, Mr. Krim's parents said, they wanted a nanny to help out. Sometimes, Ms. Krim would take the two oldest children out with her, leaving the youngest with Ms. Ortega, whom they called Josie.

An acquaintance of Mr. Krim said he had been extremely happy in California and often lamented the difficulties of family life in New York and how it was necessary for a big family to have help.

Mr. Krim's mother, Karen Krim, said Ms. Krim was a hands-on mother. "They're both very careful," she said. "She didn't even leave the kids that much alone with this nanny; that's the irony of all this."

She added: "She didn't have a nanny so she could go out and play tennis — not that there's anything wrong with that. But she was always with the kids, and Josie just helped her because, with three little kids, it's really hard."

When the Krims took family vacations, they paid to fly the nanny to Santo Domingo to visit her family. One time, they accompanied her because Ms. Ortega wanted them to meet her family. Marina Krim maintained a blog, on which she chronicled "life with the little Krim kids."

Charlotte Friedman, a retiree who lives in the Krims' building, may have been the last person to see the children alive. She did not know the members of the family, but would periodically bump into them. Around 5 p.m. on Thursday, she said, she entered the elevator, heading for her seventh-floor apartment, at the same time as the nanny and the children.

She asked the girl if she had been on a play date. The child replied that she had been dancing. Ms. Friedman described the girl as "happy, happy, happy."

The times she had encountered Ms. Ortega, she found her cold. There in the elevator, she said, the nanny smiled but said nothing. And then, she and the children got off on the second floor.

« Previous Page

Reporting was contributed by James Barron, David M. Halbfinger, Daniel Krieger, Peter Lattman, Randy Leonard, William K. Rashbaum, Nate Schweber, Daniella Silva and Vivian Yee.

Original Page: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/nyregion/motive-for-stabbings-a-mystery-as-a-portrait-of-a-troubled-nanny-emerges.html?pagewanted=all

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Mitt Romney's big economics speech: Can he deliver 'big change?'

Mitt Romney's big economics speech: Can he deliver 'big change?'

by Mark Trumbull, csmonitor.com
October 26th 2012

That assertion, made in an economics speech to voters in Iowa, came amid news that the US economy still is growing at a slow pace: an annual rate of 2 percent, according to the Commerce Department's preliminary gauge of activity in the year's third quarter.

Against that backdrop, Mr. Romney framed his remarks with a rebuke of the Obama presidency.

"President Obama frequently reminds us that he inherited a troubled economy," Romney said. But he also "inherited the most productive and innovative nation in history. He inherited the largest economy in the world.... What he inherited wasn't the only problem; what he did with what he inherited made the problem worse."

Romney said Friday his own plan would bring not only jobs but also control the rising national debt – by setting a new tone of bipartisanship, restraining federal spending, and reforming entitlements.

But as voters know, that's a tall order. Is his promise of sweeping fiscal reform credible?

The answer may be a "good news, bad news" story. On the positive side, it appears likely that whoever wins will face public and financial-market pressure to address the nation's fiscal problems. And many economists embrace a basic tenet of Romney's plan: to focus on generating economic growth, not solely on closing budget deficits in Washington.

On the negative side, however, are some serious doubts. Independent finance experts have asserted that Romney's fiscal plans are math-challenged. And even if his desire to work "across the aisle" is sincere, some analysts question whether he could deliver bipartisan cooperation, given the rigid party lines visible in Congress on issues like taxes.

"I know it because I have seen it," Romney said, referring to bipartisanship during his years as a state governor working with a Democratic legislature. "Good Democrats can come together with good Republicans to solve big problems. What we need is leadership."

In Washington today, that leadership will have to come from more than just the president. For embers of bipartisanship to rekindle, it will also require some effort by members of both parties in Congress.

It appears likely that Republicans will continue to control the House – with most of them having signed a pledge not to raise new tax revenue. The Senate will probably continue to be beyond the filibuster-proof control of either party – perhaps with Democrats retaining the majority. Democrats widely want a fiscal solution that includes some new tax revenue alongside spending cuts, and more US voters align with that view than with the no-new-revenue view.

That gets back to an aspect of the political climate that's more supportive of fiscal change: There's growing pressure to accomplish it.

One sign came this week as more than 80 CEOs of large corporations joined a nonpartisan campaign called "Fix the Debt," designed as an alarm bell for both political parties to control government borrowing. Some 300,000 Americans have signed the group's petition.

Meanwhile, two deadlines loom that will force Congress to consider tax and spending policies: the need to raise the official "debt limit" (an artificial barrier to borrowing set by lawmakers), and the "fiscal cliff." The cliff comes at year-end, when Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire even as across-the-board spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.

The fiscal cliff represents the threat of too-sudden fiscal discipline, which could hit the economy with a steep drop in consumption as consumers get hit with higher taxes, and as federal spending cuts contribute to a slowdown in business activity. If Romney wants the economy to be "roaring back" in 2013, economists say that avoiding the full impact of the cliff is important.

At the same time, though, the cliff and debt-limit bargaining could create a moment for both parties to seek a longer-term deal that would prevent fiscal "austerity" in the short run while setting a course for lower deficits in the future.

Financial markets might send their own signals of fiscal urgency to Washington, if lawmakers appear to be fiddling or fumbling.

So the climate in Washington could help Romney's prospects for "big change" or hurt them, depending on how things were to play out.

How about Romney's specific proposals, which he enumerated again Friday in Iowa? Here, too, economists and policy analysts see a mixed outlook.

Overall, the five major points Romney stresses have some important coherence. Policies that expand exports and reduce America's trade deficit could help grow jobs – including manufacturing ones around which new service-sector employment can also spring up.

More domestic energy, similarly, could reduce the trade deficit and – if it brings energy prices down a bit – leave consumers with more disposable income. In turn, a healthier economy would make it easier to reduce federal budget deficits.

Romney then argues that fiscal reform could help the economy's performance in its own right, if it removes the cloud of worry over soaring national debt. Economists widely agree that stabilizing the debt and another Romney priority – better education and training – are vital to the nation's long-term economic health. Romney's fifth point has to do with small business, and using corporate tax reform to make America a more attractive place to invest. Of course, saying these priorities are good in general still leaves questions over the details. Are Romney's fiscal and education ideas the right ones? Is Obama right to put more emphasis on environmental concerns than Romney, when it comes to domestic energy production? The Monitor has done a series of in-depth comparisons of the candidates on these and other issues. Some policy experts argue that, by bringing a more business-friendly tone to Washington, Romney could boost the confidence of employers and consumers. Many corporations have piles of cash ready to invest if they see the right conditions and opportunities. "Unlike the current administration, we actually like business and the jobs business creates," Romney said Friday, after accusing Obama of piling on new regulations.

Skeptics of this view say reviving business investment requires more than just a shift in regulatory surroundings, and that some of Romney's policies might hurt rather than help.
Romney has laid out a fiscal plan that includes sharp federal spending cuts, bringing outlays down from 24 percent of gross domestic product in 2012 to 20 percent by the end of his first term. The Obama budget, by comparison, called for spending to be a little above 22 percent of GDP at that time.
Meanwhile, on the tax side, Romney has called for changes to be "revenue neutral," bringing no more or less revenue than current policies call for. If he achieved those objectives, the result would be a fiscal policy that is growing tighter, perhaps putting a crimp in economic growth in the short run. But economists lack consensus on the impacts of a Romney fiscal policy.
Another question is whether his tax reform would really result in the same amount of tax revenue. Romney wants to cut income-tax rates by 20 percent and to offset that by limiting deductions and other loopholes in the tax code. His plan also relies on the expectation that tax reform will accelerate economic growth, helping to fill the revenue gap.
If Romney won his tax-rate cuts without winning enough deduction offsets, the result could be a fiscal climate that's more stimulative to economic growth in the short run but which adds to the national debt. And, if the tax reform fails to boost GDP growth as much as Romney hopes, that too could make the debt challenge harder to solve.

Original Page: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/1026/Mitt-Romney-s-big-economics-speech-Can-he-deliver-big-change

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Gallup Party ID Figures Predict Solid Romney Win

Gallup Party ID Figures Predict Solid Romney Win

by Neil Stevens, realclearpolitics.com
October 26th 2012

We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party.

It is for that reason that Gallup's new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.


Original Page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/10/26/gallup_party_id_figures_predict_solid_romney_win_294348.html

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Friday, October 26, 2012

Romney Presses Economic Case in Iowa

Romney Presses Economic Case in Iowa

m.nbcchicago.com | Oct 26th 2012 12:39 PM

Mitt Romney is trying to close the deal with voters by promising to revitalize the economy, an area where polling shows the Republican presidential nominee has an edge heading into the final days of the campaign.

As President Barack Obama takes a break from the campaign trail, Romney was promoting an economic address in swing state Iowa to help win the dwindling number of voters yet to make up their minds. While the speech was not expected to break new ground, Romney's campaign said he would use it to help crystalize the differences between his and Obama's economic approaches.

For full election coverage visit NBCNews.com.

"If Paul Ryan and I are elected as your president and vice president, we will endeavor with all our hearts and energy to restore America," Romney said in prepared excerpts his campaign released hours before he was scheduled to deliver the speech. "Instead of more spending, more borrowing from China and higher taxes from Washington, we'll renew our faith in the power of free people pursuing their dreams.

Original Page: http://m.nbcchicago.com/nbcchicago/pm_107718/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=yaDLJFA8&rwthr=0

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Berlusconi sentenced to jail in Mediaset trial

Berlusconi sentenced to jail in Mediaset trial

by Sara Rossi, feeds.reuters.com
October 26th 2012 9:18 AM

MILAN (Reuters) - An Italian court on Friday sentenced former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi to four years in jail for tax fraud in connection with the purchase of broadcasting rights by his Mediaset television company.

Berlusconi has the right to appeal the ruling two more times before a definite sentence, and will not have to serve any time in jail until his final appeal is heard. Prosecutors had asked for a jail sentence of three years and eight months.

The ruling comes two days after Berlusconi, 76, confirmed he would not run in next year's elections as the leader of his People of Freedom (PDL) center-right party.

Mediaset shares fell nearly 3 percent after the ruling.

Original Page: http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/reuters/topNews/~3/AtHlccxYvhs/us-berlusconi-mediaset-idUSBRE89P0PZ20121026

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Dem's amendment would give 29 more electoral votes to popular vote winner - The Hill's Blog Briefing Room

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/264227-israel-offers-amendment-to-give-popular-vote-winner-29-move-electoral-votes


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The final push: What Mitt Romney needs to do before Election Day

The final push: What Mitt Romney needs to do before Election Day

theweek.com | Oct 26th 2012 6:48 AM

Voters head to the polls in less than two weeks. Here, a guide to Romney's endgame

President Obama and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat as they enter the home stretch of the 2012 presidential race. The two candidates are furiously criss-crossing the country to make their final pitches to voters in battleground states, with the president finishing up a sleepless 38-hour tour to nine states and Romney hitting up three towns in the crucial swing state of Ohio. The debates are over, and, barring an earth-shattering event, the outcome of the race will likely be determined by the work the two campaigns accomplish over the next two weeks. Here, six things Romney needs to do in the final days of the race:

1. Win the closing argument on the economy
The main thrust of Romney's campaign is that Obama has failed to lift the economy, and that the former private equity manager has the expertise to turn it around. It is Romney's most potent argument, and polls show that most voters believe Romney would do a better job than the president on economic issues. With Obama seeking to clarify his economic message, the last thing Romney wants to see is Obama gaining ground on pocketbook issues. The GOP candidate is scheduled to deliver a major address on the economy on Friday, a speech that his campaign hopes will seal the deal.

2. Stick with Moderate Mitt
Romney's late surge in the polls coincided with his abrupt transformation into a moderate on issues ranging from financial regulation to Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program. While he remains committed to turning Medicare into a voucher system and lowering tax rates for the wealthy, Romney has undergone an optical metamorphosis that is attractive to independent voters. "Romney knows that, by substantial margins, the country favors raising taxes on the rich and opposes slashing many government programs, including Medicare and Social Security," says E.J. Dionne at The Washington Post. Convincing voters that he is a centrist is crucial for the GOP challenger, as is beating back attacks that he's an oily opportunist or a severe conservative at heart.

3. Distance himself from controversial Republicans
In the same vein, Romney has to divorce himself from extreme members of his own party. In what almost seems like a calculated campaign to sabotage Romney's candidacy, Donald Trump this week offered $5 million to a charity if Obama released his birth and college records, a reminder of the virulent strain of birtherism that runs through the GOP. In addition, Romney's campaign is dealing with the blowback from a controversy surrounding Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, who said that when a women becomes pregnant from rape "that's something God intended." Romney has not withdrawn his endorsement for Mourdock, and the Obama campaign is frantically trying to tie the two in the minds of women voters.

4. Become the candidate of change
Romney has recently begun telling voters that they face a distinct choice in this election: The status quo or a "big change." With the economy lurching along at a sluggish pace, and Congress stuck in gridlock, it could be a message that resonates with the electorate. It's also "an attempt at role reversal," say Colleen McCain Nelson and Laura Meckler at The Wall Street Journal, "as the Republican presidential nominee tries to own the message that [Obama] used effectively in 2008 to persuade voters that he could move the country beyond its partisan stalemate." Hey, it worked for Obama.

5. Act like a frontrunner
While Obama at times appears to be playing the role of underdog, Romney clearly relishes portraying himself as the front-runner in the race. "Cultivating the image that he is a winner, his aides say, could be Mr. Romney's best strategy for actually winning," say Jeff Zeleny and Ashley Parker at The New York Times. At campaign rallies Romney has described the Obama campaign as "sinking," while touting his own inevitable march into the Oval Office, a tactic that seems to jazz up the Republican base. One of the biggest applause lines at his rallies is when he begins sentences with: "If I'm elected — no, when I'm elected..."

6. Chip away at Obama's lead in Ohio
Even the most confident Romney supporter has to quail a little in the face of hard, cold math. Obama is holding on to a slim but consistent lead in Ohio, whose 18 electoral votes could help Obama reach the winning threshold of 270. There are scenarios in which Romney can win without Ohio, but the odds are daunting: Political observers say he would have to run up victories in swing states that are toss-ups, as well as one or two that are currently leaning toward Obama. Expect to see a lot of Romney in the Buckeye State in the coming days.

Sources: ABC News, The Associated Press, Fox News, The Hill, The New York Times, TIME, Twitter, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post

Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.

Original Page: http://theweek.com/article/index/235461/the-final-push-what-mitt-romney-needs-to-do-before-election-day

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Hurricane Sandy could be a monster when it hits U.S. coast

Hurricane Sandy could be a monster when it hits U.S. coast

latimes.com | Oct 26th 2012

Antonio Garces of Aguacate, Cuba, tries to recover his belongings after his house was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy will probably grow into a "Frankenstorm" that may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years if current forecasts are correct.

Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland. The hurricane currently passing the Bahamas has killed 21 people across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported, citing local officials.

"What we're seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century," Kocin said in a telephone interview yesterday. "We're not trying to hype it, this is what we're seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker."

The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go ashore in New Jersey on Tuesday, although landfall predictions often change as storms get closer to shore.

A tropical-storm watch was issued from Savannah River northward to Oregon Inlet in North Carolina, the U.S. NHC said in an advisory. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Florida's east coast from Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach. A storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the region, a warning means tropical storm conditions are expected.

"If the storm follows the current hurricane center forecast, we are looking at over $5 billion in damage," Chuck Watson, director of research and development at Kinetic Analysis Corp. in Silver Spring, Maryland, said yesterday.

Watson said the track may change quite a bit between now and early next week. An accurate assessment of potential damage from wind and rain probably can't be made until late this week.

As of 5 a.m. New York time, Sandy had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of 80 mph, down from 100 mph earlier, according to the hurricane center in Miami. It was 15 miles east-southeast of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas and 485 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C., and moving northwest at 13 mph.

The 1938 hurricane killed more than 500 people after crossing Long Island and battering Connecticut and Rhode Island.

"We can say even now our worst fears may be realized," Kocin said. "If we were seeing what we're seeing today one day out, we would really be shouting the alarms."

Governments along the East Coast are preparing for Sandy's impact. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo directed state agencies to monitor the storm and Massachusetts's Emergency Management Agency warned residents to expect the worst.

New York City has a 55 percent chance of winds of at least 39 mph by Oct. 30, according to estimates by Tropical Storm Risk, a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and climate supported by the U.K. government.

The center's track predicts landfall between Atlantic City and Toms River, N.J.

Original Page: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-hurricane-sandy-could-be-a-monster-when-it-hits-us-coast-20121026,0,7362637.story

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